Used vehicle values 2026 are not crashing—they’re stabilizing at a higher plateau. The latest mid-February Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) update shows a market with firm demand, early spring strength, and enough support that small and mid-sized fleets need to be precise, not hopeful, with their remarketing and replacement plans. 

If you operate work trucks, vans, or light-duty service vehicles, this isn’t academic. The wholesale lane is where your future trade values and used replacements are being set in real time. Below is what the data says and how to turn it into decisions you can act on in 2026.

1. Headline: Prices Are Stable, Not Sliding

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index:

  • Index level: 210.0 mid-February
  • Seasonally adjusted: down 0.2% vs. January, but up 2.9% year over year
  • Non-adjusted: up 1.9% vs. January and up 3.1% year over year, stronger than the long-term average February gain of about 0.9%

Translation:

  • On a seasonally adjusted basis, values are roughly where they should be for mid-February.
  • In the real-world lane, prices are moving up faster than a “normal” February.
  • This pattern is consistent with the spring selling season starting early.

For fleets waiting on a “big drop” in used values, this is the wrong story. The used market is functioning, not falling apart.

2. Demand Is Real: Conversions and Retention Are Above Normal

Two metrics in the Manheim data matter a lot for fleet owners:

  • MMR prices for 3-year-old units: up 1.3% in the first half of February—stronger than last year and above long-term norms.
  • MMR retention: averaging 100.3%, slightly higher than a year ago and above January. That means vehicles are selling at or just above guide values on average.
  • Sales conversion: 62.5%, up nearly 3 points year over year and 2.4 points from January.

Those three stats together say the same thing:

  • Depreciation early in the month has been milder than normal.
  • Buyers are in the lanes and saying “yes” at healthy rates.
  • Guidebook numbers are being validated by actual hammer prices.

For a small fleet, that’s your signal that:

  • You can still sell into a strong market if you choose your timing and channels well.
  • You should not budget as if wholesale values will suddenly go on clearance.

3. Tax Refunds and Lower Rates Are Supporting Used Values

The Cox Automotive team calls out two big tailwinds for the spring market:

  • Tax refunds: Early IRS data shows average refunds running nearly 11% higher than this time last year, with averages in the $2,200–$2,400 range depending on the cut of the data.
  • The “One Big Beautiful Bill” tax law is part of the reason, adding new deductions—including auto loan interest—that are flowing into refunds.
  • Auto loan rates: Forecasts for 2026 point to slightly lower auto loan rates versus late 2025, with used-vehicle loan averages expected around 7.1% for 48-month terms—down about a third of a point.

That combination—bigger refunds, slightly easier financing—gives retail buyers more confidence and more cash to spend. Cox’s own commentary notes that dealers came into February stocking up for what they expect to be a strong spring, and early conversion data is backing that up. 

For fleets, that means:

  • Retail demand is likely to stay supportive of your used exits through spring.
  • The buyers for your de-fleeted units—retail and smaller independent dealers—are seeing more shopper activity, not less.

4. Segment and EV Trends: Not All Used Vehicles Are Equal

Manheim’s mid-February cut points to a few important nuances: 

  • Overall market: +2.9% year over year, with luxury leading that growth.
  • Traditional cars: seeing the largest declines, reflecting shifting demand.
  • EVs vs. non-EVs:
    • EV index: +1.7% year over year, and +0.7% vs. January
    • Non-EV index: +2.5% year over year, and -0.2% vs. January

What this means in practice:

  • If your fleet runs higher-spec or near-luxury trims, you may still be able to capture strong resale, but you should also be realistic about who the end buyer is.
  • Cars in weaker demand segments are more price-sensitive; don’t assume past resale strength will automatically carry forward.
  • EV values, after some post-incentive softness earlier in the year, are stabilizing rather than sliding. Non-EVs remain high, even with a minor month-over-month dip.

If you’re considering adding EVs or hybrids as pool cars, sales reps’ vehicles, or limited-route service units, the current trend suggests you’re less likely to be stepping onto a falling elevator than you were a few months ago.

5. Supply Is Reasonable, Not Bloated

On the supply side:

  • Wholesale supply ended January at 27 days, flat versus a year prior and down from 32 days in December.
  • As of February 15, it ticked up to 28 days—still below many historic “excess supply” levels.

Given that:

  • Conversion is strong.
  • Values are holding.
  • Supply is near a healthy band.

This is not a distressed, buyer-only market. It’s balanced enough that smart sellers can still do well—and sloppy buyers can still overpay.

6. What Used Vehicle Values 2026 Mean for Your Fleet Plan

Here’s how to turn this market picture into action:

  1. Review your 2026 replacement queue now.

Use total cost of ownership, not age alone:

  • Repairs + downtime
  • Fuel and tires
  • Current estimated resale

If the next 24 months of keep-and-repair cost is close to (or higher than) the payment and TCO on a newer unit, it’s a candidate to exit into this spring strength.

  1. Sell into strength—deliberately.
  • Target units that are still “retailable”: reasonable miles, solid condition, clean history.
  • Avoid the temptation to run a unit until it’s only attractive to the lowest-tier buyers. That’s where you lose the most margin.
  • Use multiple channels (auction, direct sale, dealer partners) where it makes sense.
  1. Be disciplined on used acquisitions.

If you’re buying used rather than new:

  • Don’t chase every uptick—price to TCO, not emotion.
  • Pay extra attention to segment trends: work trucks and vans are different from aging sedans or niche vehicles.
  • Watch EV vs. non-EV pricing carefully; stability doesn’t mean “cheap,” it means “predictable enough to model.”
  1. Update your assumptions—not just your gut feel.

If your 2026 budget assumes a big drop in resale, adjust it. If it assumes never-ending 2021-style highs, adjust that too. Used vehicle values 2026 look more like a controlled descent to a new normal, supported by:

  • Bigger refunds
  • Slightly lower loan rates
  • Healthy, but not frantic, demand

7. How Alliance Fleet Solutions Helps You Use This Data

You don’t have time to track every Manheim report or wholesale trend. You do need to make:

  • Clear decisions on what to sell and when to replace
  • Smart calls on buying used vs. new for specific roles
  • Realistic assumptions in your 2026 and 2027 budgets

That’s where Alliance fits:

  • Fractional Fleet Management

     A right-sized fleet leader who turns market data and your repair history into a living keep / repair / replace plan—without the cost of a full-time hire.
  • Vehicle Acquisition & Financing

     We model TCO and resale against current used vehicle values 2026, then structure up to 100% financing (including upfits) so your replacements support cash flow instead of stressing it.
  • Maintenance & Repair Management

     We connect shop data, warranties, and telematics so you’re not pouring money into units that the market is already telling us to exit.

If you want help turning today’s used market into an advantage instead of another variable, contact us. We’ll review three of your costliest units and send you a one-page plan tailored to what this 2026 market means for your operation.