If you run a plumbing, HVAC, or healthcare/mobile service fleet, the big question isn’t academic—it’s budget math: Will vehicles cost more in the next 6–12 months?

Short answer: list prices have been steady, but pressure is building. Below is what’s real right now and how to time purchases without guessing.

Where prices sit today

  • New-vehicle ATP (average transaction price) was $48,841 in July. That’s essentially flat month-over-month, but up 1.5% year over year—the largest annual gain of 2025 so far.
  • Used pricing is still elevated. Three-year-old vehicles averaged $31,216 in Q2—just shy of record highs.
  • Payments stay heavy. The average new-car payment was on pace for $742 in July, the highest for any July on record.

What that means: you can still buy at 2024-ish price levels if you shop smart, but the window is narrowing.

Tariffs 101 for fleet buyers (the usable version)

  • There’s a 25% tariff on imported passenger vehicles and light trucks, plus 25% on many imported auto parts. Auto tariffs began April 3, 2023; parts tariffs from May 3, 2025.
  • Tariffs don’t “stack. If a vehicle/part is hit by the auto tariff, it generally won’t also be hit by overlapping steel/aluminum reciprocal tariffs—per the White House non-stacking order. (Other duties can still apply.)
  • UK carve-out (useful for specific models): the first 100,000 UK-built vehicles each year face a combined 10% tariff (7.5% + existing 2.5% MFN). Above the quota, it reverts to 25%. Certain UK parts tied to UK vehicles also qualify for 10% total.
  • On metals: 2025 also brought higher tariffs on steel/aluminum, and a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper and copper-intensive derivatives,all of which can raise U.S. build costs and repair parts pricing. 

Will new-vehicle prices rise into 2026?

Probably. Cox Automotive expects retail prices to end 2025 up 4%–8%, with additional pressure as 2026-model-year inventory arrives. 

One more pinch point: the sub-$30K segment (where many service fleets shop for base vans and crossovers). 92% of entry-level vehicles are imported, and inventory in this tier has fallen for three straight months—so discounts are thinner and selection is shrinking. 

About that “Big, Beautiful Bill” (auto-loan interest deduction)

Yes, the law added an above-the-line deduction for car-loan interest (up to $10,000/year, 2025–2028)—but it’s only for new, U.S.-assembled, personally used vehicles, and phases out at higher incomes. It doesn’t apply to business fleet purchases or lease. Useful for a personal car; not a lever for company fleets. 

Practical moves for service & healthcare fleets

1) Lock today’s economics where it makes sense.

  • If a unit will be replaced inside 12 months, price out in-stock 2025s now and compare to an order for 2026 delivery. Use a simple TCO model (payment + fuel + insurance + expected repairs + projected resale).
  • Ask dealers/OEMs about subvented APRs (0–3% offers are more common again); these can offset price creep.

2) Mind the trims and origins.

  • For tariff exposure, verify final assembly and major content on your short list (many entry-level models are imported). If a UK-built variant is on your radar, check whether it falls under the 100k quota.

3) Don’t overpay for speed.

  • If you can run a unit 6–9 months longer without reliability risk, a planned PM catch-up + minor repairs can be cheaper than rushing into a thinner inventory pool. (Tariff pass-throughs typically phase in; you may still hit a softer pocket later this year.)

4) Spec for uptime, not brochure value.

  • Keep upfits lean and durable (racks, partitions, cylinder cages for HVAC/health) and avoid long-lead specialty add-ons that tie replacement timing to one supplier.

5) Tighten your reconditioning and resale plan.

  • Used prices are still strong; clean reconditioning and good records help you capture the tailwind when you de-fleet.

A quick checklist for Q3–Q4 buys

  • Shortlist 2–3 models per need (plumbing, HVAC, medical transport).
  • Verify tariff profile (assembly location + parts exposure).
  • Compare in-stock 2025 vs. ordered 2026 pricing with and without subvented APRs.
  • Run TCO with a 12–60 month horizon; include projected resale.
  • Time your upfit so vehicles land “ready to earn,” not waiting on racks or cages.
  • If you’re on the fence, extend the current unit with a PM refresh and calendar a replacement window (not a date).

How Alliance Fleet Solutions helps you thread the needle

  • Vehicle Acquisition & Financing
    We source the right units and structure up to 100% financing (including upfits) with flexible terms and turnkey delivery. You get clean apples-to-apples quotes across trims and origins so tariff exposure is clear before you sign.
  • Maintenance & Repair Management
     ASE-certified oversight, nationwide vetted shops, pre-approval controls, warranty/recall capture, rentals/loaners, and 24/7 roadside—so you can extend a unit confidently or bring a new one online without drama.
  • Fractional Fleet Management
     A right-sized fleet leader to run reviews, PM cadence, and replacement timing. We maintain your TCO model and make the buy/hold call data-driven.

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Notes & sources

Policies and incentives change quickly. Always confirm final assembly, current tariffs, and program details at the time of order.